Error message

  • Deprecated function: Unparenthesized `a ? b : c ? d : e` is deprecated. Use either `(a ? b : c) ? d : e` or `a ? b : (c ? d : e)` in include_once() (line 1439 of /home/science2016/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc).
  • Deprecated function: Array and string offset access syntax with curly braces is deprecated in include_once() (line 3557 of /home/science2016/public_html/includes/bootstrap.inc).

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY DYNAMICS BASED ON THE METHODS OF CHAOS THEORY: GENERAL CONCEPTIONS

Alexander Glushkov, Timur Safranov, Olga Khetselius, Anna Ignatenko, Vasily Buyadzhi, Andrey Svinarenko
AttachmentSize
PDF icon full_text.pdf96.15 KB

Keywords:

Abstract: 
For the first time, we present a completely new technique of analysis, processing and forecasting of any time series of the environmental radioactivity dynamics, which schematically is as follows: a) general qualitative analysis of a dynamical problem, typical environmental radioactivity dynamics (including a qualitative analysis from the viewpoint of ordinary differential equations, the “Arnold-analysis”); b) checking for the presence of chaotic (stochastic) features and regimes (the Gottwald-Melbourne’s test; the correlation dimension method); c) reducing the phase space (the choice of time delay, the definition of the embedding space by the correlation dimension methods and false nearest neighbours algorithms); d) determination of the dynamic invariants of a chaotic system (computation of the global Lyapunov dimension la; determination of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension dL and average limits of predictability Prmax on the basis of the advanced algorithms; e) a nonlinear prediction (forecasting) of any dynamical system evolution. The last block really includes new (in the theory of environmental radioactivity dynamics and environmental protection) methods and algorithms of nonlinear prediction such as methods of predicted trajectories, stochastic propagators and neural networks modeling, renormanalysis with blocks of polynomial approximations, wavelet-expansions etc.
References: 

[1] Wada T., Tomiya A., Enomoto M. et al: Journ. of Env.
Radioactivity, 2016, 151, 144.
[2] Bunyakova Yu. Ya., Glushkov A. V.: Analysis
and forecast of the impact of anthropogenic factors
on air basein of an industrial city. Odessa, Ecology,
2010.
[3] Glushkov A. V.: Ukranian hydrometeorological journal,
2014, N15, 32.
[4] Glushkov A. V., Khokhlov V. N., Bunyakova Yu. Ya.,
Prepelitsa G. P., Tsenenko I. A.: Sensor Electr. and
Microsyst.Techn., 2005, 4, 27.
[5] Glushkov A. V., Khokhlov V. N., Prepelitsa G. P.,
Tsenenko I. A. : Optics of atmosphere and ocean, 2004,
14, 219.
[6] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Kuzakon V. M.,
Prepelitsa G. P., Solyanikova E. P., Svinarenko A. A.:
Dynamical Systems - Theory and Applications, 2011,
BIF110.
[7] Glushkov A. V., Kuzakon’ V. M., Khetselius O. Yu.
etal: Proc. of Internat. Geometry Center, 2013, 6,
N3, 6.
[8] Rusov V. N., Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu.
et al: Adv. in Space Research (Elsevier), 2008,
42(9), 1614.
[9] Bunyakova Yu. Ya., Khetselius O. Yu.: Proc. of the 8th
International Carbon Dioxide Conference (Germany),
2009, T2-098.
[10] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Brusentseva S. V.
et al: Adv. in Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems and
Artificial Intelligence. Series: Recent Adv. in Computer
Engineering (Gdansk), 2014, 21, 69.
[11] Glushkov A. V., Svinarenko A. A., Buyadzhi V. V. et al :
Adv. in Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems and Artificial
Intelligence, Series: Recent Adv. in Computer
Engineering (Gdansk), 2014, 21, 143.
[12] Rusov V. D., Glushkov A. V., Vaschenko V. N. et al: Journ.
of Atm. and Solar-Terrestrial Phys., 2010, 72, 498.
[13] Sivakumar B.: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2004, 19,
Nо. 2, 441.
[14] Chelani A. B.: Int. J. Environ. Stud, 2005, 62, 181.
[15] Gottwald G. A., Melbourne I.: Proc. Roy. Soc. London.
Ser. A. Math. Phys. Sci., 2004, 460, 603.
[16] Packard N. H., Crutchfield J. P., Farmer J. D., Shaw R. S.:
Phys. Rev. Lett., 1980, 45, 712.
[17] Kennel M., Brown R., Abarbanel H.: Phys. Rev. A.,
1992, 45, 3403.
[18] Abarbanel H. D. I., Brown R., Sidorowich J. J.,
Tsimring L. Sh.: Rev. Mod. Phys, 1993, 65, 1331.
[19] Schreiber T.: Phys. Rep., 1999, vol. 308, 1.
[20] Fraser A. M., SwinneyH.: Phys. Rev. A., 1986, 33, 1134.
[21] Grassberger P., Procaccia I. ,Physica D, 1983, 9, 189.
[22] Gallager R. G.: Information theory and reliable
communication. NY:Wiley, 1968.
[23] Mañé R.: Lecture Notes in Mathematics (Berlin:
Springer), 1981, 898, 230.
[24] Takens F.: Lecture Notes in Mathematics (Berlin:
Springer), 1981, 898, 336.
[25] Prepelitsa G. P., Glushkov A. V., Lepikh Ya. I. et al:
Sensor Electr. and Microsystems Techn., 2014, 11,
Nо. 4, 43.
[26] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Prepelitsa G. P.,
Svinarenko A. A.: Proc. of Internat. Geometry Center,
2013, 6, Nо. 1, 43.
[27] Khetselius O. Yu., Glushkov A. V., Gurnitskaya E. P.
etal: Spectral Line Shapes, Vol.15-19th Internat. Conf.
on Spectral Line Shapes (AIP), 2008, 15, 231.
[28] Khetselius O. Yu.: Spectral Line Shapes, Volume 15-19th
Internat. Conf. on Spectral Line Shapes (AIP), 2008, 15, 363
[29] Rusov V. N., Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu. et al:
Adv. in Space Research (Elsevier), 2008, 42(9), 1614.
[30] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Loboda A. V.,
Svinarenko A. A.: Frontiers in Quantum Systems in
Chemistry and Physics, Ser.: Progress in Theor. Chem.
and Phys., Eds. S.Wilson, P.J.Grout, J. Maruani,
G.Delgado-Barrio, P. Piecuch (Springer), 2008, 18, 541.
[31] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Lovett L.: Advances
in the Theory of Atomic and Molecular Systems:
Dynamics, Spectroscopy, Clusters, and Nanostructures.
Ser.: Progress in Theor. Chem. and Phys., Eds. Piecuch
P., Maruani J., Delgado-Barrio G., Wilson S. (Springer),
2009, 20, 125.
[32] Khetselius O. Yu.: Sensor Electronics and Microsystem
Techn., 2008, 3, 28.
[33] Khetselius O. Yu.: Photoelectronics, 2005, 14, 83
[34] Khetselius O. Yu.: Journ. of Physics: Conf. Series (IOP,
UK), 2012, 397, 012012.
[35] Khetselius O. Yu., Florko T. A., Svinarenko A. A.,
Tkach T. B.: Phys.Scripta (IOP), 2013, T153, 014037.
[36] Glushkov A. V., Rusov V. D., Ambrosov S., Loboda A.:
New projects and new lines of research in nuclear
physics, Eds. G.Fazio, F.Hanappe (World Scientific),
2003, 126
[37] Glushkov A. V., Malinovskaya S. V.: New projects and
new lines of research in nuclear physics. Eds. G.Fazio
and F. Hanappe (World Scientific), 2003, 242.
[38] Glushkov A. V., Malinovskaya S. V., Gurnitskaya E. P.,
Khetselius O. Yu., Dubrovskaya Yu. V.: Journ.of Physics:
Conf. Series (IOP), 2006, 35, 425.
[39] Malinovskaya S. V., Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu.,
Lopatkin Yu. M., Loboda A. V., Svinarenko A. A.,
Nikola L. V., Perelygina T. B.: Int.Journ. Quant.Chem.,
2011, 111(2), 288.
[40] Malinovskaya S. V., Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu.,
Svinarenko A. A., Mischenko E. V., Florko T. A.:
Int.Journ. Quant.Chem., 2009, 109(14), 3325.
[41] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Malinovskaya S. V.:
Molec. Phys. , 2008, 106 (9-10), 1257
[42] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Svinarenko A. A.:
Coherence and Ultrashort Pulse Laser Emission, Ed. by
F. J. Duarte (InTech), 2010, 159.
[43] Abarbanel H. D. I., Brown R., Sidorowich J. J.,
Tsimring L. Sh.: Rev. Mod. Phys, 1993, 65, 1331.
[44] Schreiber T.: Phys. Rep., 1999, vol. 308, 1.
[45] Malinovskaya S. V., Glushkov A. V., Dubrovskaya Yu.
V., Vitavetskaya L. A., Recent Advances in the Theory
of Chemical and Physical Systems (Springer), 2006, 15,
301.
[46] Glushkov A. V., Khetselius O. Yu., Svinarenko A. A.:
Advances in the Theory of Quantum Systems in Chem.
and Phys., Ser.: Progress in Theor. Chem. and Phys., ed.
by P.Hoggan, E.Brandas,J.Maruani, G. Delgado-Barrio,
P. Piecuch (Springer), 2012, 22, 51
[47] Glushkov A. V., Malinovskaya S. V., Sukharev D. E.,
Khetselius O.Yu., Loboda A.V., Lovett L.: Int. Journ.
Quantum Chem., 2009, 109 (8), 1717.